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Talking Points: • Immediately following Wednesday's critical technical breakdowns, the, and have forged sharp rebounds • Google and Amazon will test earnings' influence on risk trends, political risk and the trade war are still unresolved themes • Top standard event risk Friday is US 3Q GDP, but credit rating updates on Italy and the UK after the close are important With October winding down, how are the DailyFX analysts' 4Q forecasts panning out? See what the analysts forecasts for the Dollar,, Equities, and more through the 4Q 2018? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the.
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Speculators Grab the Ledge after US Equities Go Over the Edge The dive from US equity indices on Wednesday still marks the charts like a nasty scar. But there was a tentative sense of healing from these battered pace-setters following a substantial rebound this past session. The question is whether there is enough intent here to stabilize fear and encourage the dip buyers and long-term buy-and-hold crowd to retain control, or if this is a mere gasp before we sink further. Taking stock of the 'correction' Thursday, there is little disputing the impressive scale of the bounce. The S&P 500 and Dow managed between opening gaps and session follow through 1.9 and 1.6 percent rallies respectively. The Nasdaq was by far the most impressive numbers-wise with a 3.3 percent charge.
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Of course, the implication of these remarkable moves is significantly by the context that they are an effort to recover lost ground. For the Nasdaq, the rebound falls short of fully offsetting its previous day's loss and sets out a clear series of lower highs - though it managed to move back above the multi-year rising trendline support it recently slipped. The Dow and the S&P 500 on the other hand are still below their respective former floors and looking to treat them as new resistance. The same sense of restraint against falling into a bearish black hole was apparent for global indices, emerging markets, carry and other risk-leaning assets.
However, for most of them, the potential of swing back in the bulls' favor looks much more like an effort to catch a falling knife or pick a bottom rather than take advantage of a modest retracement. Through the final trading day, keep a closer eye on the technical cues and general course of sentiment. Themes like trade wars, earnings and political risk are present but lacking clear conviction. Nasdaq 100 and Daily Change The US GDP Update is More than Just a Single-Service Indicator As the capital markets look to sort out trends, the Dollar seems to consistently find its way higher. Well, at least it seems that the Greenback is making progress when we refer to the Index. The weighting on that particular representation is heavily skewed towards which itself has slid consistently towards the 1.1300 swing low established in August. Yet, if we were to reference an equally-weighted measure of the, the picture changes substantially.
It is retesting multi-month highs - whereas the DXY is still short of its own peak - but it is marking far less progress in this recent charge. With the Fed's policy course so clearly set and political risks a constant without a decisive outcome for the next few weeks, the currency's path may borrow from source that seems to wax and wane with the environment: as a liquid counterpart to its its largest and most active peers. With the Euro and Pound both in retreat for their own fundamental reasons and convoluted for haven needs, direction is set for the Dollar. Distinct event risk may return to FX traders Dollar radars in the near future however.